{
  "title": "Does a good outcome prove that your team made a good decision?",
  "url": "https://shr.swiss/blog/bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix-en",
  "language": "en",
  "datePublished": "2026-06-08",
  "publisher": {
    "name": "SHR — Swiss Human Resources",
    "url": "https://shr.swiss",
    "address": "184 route de Saint-Julien, 1228 Plan-les-Ouates, Suisse"
  },
  "summary": "A risky choice can succeed, while a carefully reasoned decision can fail. Learning from experience requires managers to distinguish the quality of the reasoning from the quality of the outcome.",
  "section": "Research",
  "topic": "Decision-making",
  "place": {
    "name": "Lucerne",
    "region": "Lucerne",
    "country": "CH"
  },
  "keyPoints": [
    {
      "heading": "1. What the literature establishes: outcomes influence evaluations",
      "point": "Jonathan Baron and John C."
    },
    {
      "heading": "2. A second mechanism: the past becomes artificially predictable",
      "point": "Baruch Fischhoff (1975, Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance) shows that knowing an event's outcome changes retrospective estimates of its probability."
    },
    {
      "heading": "3. The premature conclusion: outcomes should be ignored",
      "point": "These studies do not suggest that outcomes are useless when evaluating decisions."
    },
    {
      "heading": "4. The limitations: a well-written record does not guarantee a good decision",
      "point": "These experiments use controlled situations and do not demonstrate that any particular procedure improves business performance."
    },
    {
      "heading": "5. A practical check in Lucerne",
      "point": "In the canton of Lucerne, tourism, hospitality, regional financial services and industrial SMEs provide a relevant setting for this distinction: in the many family-run businesses with short lines of communication and strong regional ties, a visible outcome can quickly become a judgement about the person who decided."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "authors": "Hershey",
      "year": "1988",
      "source": "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
    },
    {
      "authors": "Fischhoff",
      "year": "1975",
      "source": "Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance"
    }
  ],
  "wordCount": 442,
  "image": "https://shr.swiss/img/blog-Training-Decision-Making-Lucerne-bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix-en.jpg?v=4",
  "translations": {
    "fr": "https://shr.swiss/blog/bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix",
    "en": "https://shr.swiss/blog/bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix-en",
    "de": "https://shr.swiss/blog/bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix-de",
    "it": "https://shr.swiss/blog/bon-resultat-bonne-decision-comment-evaluer-un-choix-it"
  },
  "relatedPages": {
    "programme": "https://shr.swiss/formation-prise-de-decision-lucerne",
    "city": "https://shr.swiss/formations-ville/lucerne",
    "blog": "https://shr.swiss/blog"
  },
  "citationPolicy": "Citation autorisée avec mention « SHR — Swiss Human Resources » et lien vers l'article."
}